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Sentiment Signals - Retail Sales Graph
This graph shows the Sentiment Signals prior to the drop off in Retail Sales. TrendPointers provides the composition of sentiment whereas other measures of sentiment are expressed as a single number. In this case note the increase in “uncertainty” (yellow) and its cross-over with both “positive” (green) and “negative” (red) about 12 months prior to the near-collapse of Retail Sales. We have observed that consumer do not change behavior immediately even in the face of uncertainty. Notice that there is then a capitulation between uncertainty and negative sentiment in December 2007 which was the second salvo warning of changes.
Alan Greenspan said “if I could figure out a way to determine whether or not people are more fearful or tuning to more euphoric and know…which of the two things were working…I could forecast the economy better than anyone I know”.
TrendPointers provides such insights. Sentiment Signals provide a long range outlook for many important economic indicators. TrendPointers PreCasts in contrast provide specific forecasts looking out 3 to 6 months.
Consider overlaying sales from your company here. Let’s see if any patterns emerge. We can also develop a mathematical correlation between TrendPointers Sentiment Signals and your company’s sales. Businesses that are highly leveraged to consumer spending tend to have high correlations with TrendPointer data. This may also open the door to developing custom sales models.
A number of additional measures are available:
Sentiment Signal Trends – Overall Economy – Business Media
Sentiment Signals Scorecard – Business Media Sentiment
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence – Precast Signals
Conference Board Consumer Confidence – Precast Signals
Retail Sales – Precast Signals vs. Reported
Historical Business Media Sentiment vs. Retail Sales
Overall Economy Sentiment Signal Trends – Business Media
Overall Economy Sentiment Signal Trends – Mass Media
Recession/Recovery – Business Media Sentiment
Recession/Recovery – Mass Media Sentiment
Housing Sector – Business Media Sentiment
Housing Sector – Mass Media Sentiment
Please contact Brad Shelton for additional information
bshelton@datasourcetech.com
